The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
●FL-Sen: On Monday, Florida man Rick Scott, who started telling donors he was interested in running against Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson all the way back in 2015, finally made his long-awaited campaign official. While there'd been occasional reports since December that Scott might not go through with it, he was able to delay his entry into the race far longer than would have been wise for just about any other candidate thanks to his universal name recognition and enormous wealth (last year, he reported his net worth as $149 million).
Campaign ActionBut the risks are still considerable. While Scott undoubtedly has reams of polling showing that he can win, and no sane Democrat would dispute the possibility, the fact remains that he won both of his races as governor by just a single point each time, and Nelson is a stronger opponent than either Alex Sink or Charlie Crist—plus he's the incumbent.
What's more, both of Scott's victories came in successive Republican waves. 2018, needless to say, will not look anything like 2010 or 2014, though Scott at least appears to be mindful of that fact. In a new interview with Politico, Scott, who's long been a steadfast Trump supporter, wouldn't call himself a "Donald Trump Republican," refused to say whether he'd ask Trump to campaign for him, and punted when asked if he considered Trump an "asset"—a sure sign Scott knows he isn't.
Candidates in battleground races trying to distance themselves from unpopular presidents is one of the oldest patterns in politics, but the problem is that it fails more often than it succeeds. That's especially true in this highly polarized age. Who, for instance, are the Clinton-Scott voters?
And the challenge may be particularly great for Scott. In January of 2016, long before Trump locked up the GOP nomination, Scott penned an op-ed for USA Today in which he declared Trump “has America’s pulse.” Trump returned the love, and then some: Trump repeatedly urged Scott to run for Senate and transparently tried to boost his political fortunes when Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke ostentatiously exempted Florida from new regulations permitting more offshore oil drilling in January.
A further sign of Nelson's strength lies in the fact that Scott was really the one Florida Republican capable of putting his seat in play. Scott's long ramp-up largely froze the field, but the fact still remains that the only two notable alternatives who considered the race were Rep. Tom Rooney, who instead decided to retire from Congress altogether, and … Hulk Hogan.
This is obviously going to be an expensive battle, and while Nelson is a good fundraiser, Scott's entry at the very least will divert Democratic resources from other contests. That's definitely a real plus for Republicans elsewhere, who've by and large struggled to bring in money. Ultimately, though, whatever advantages he brings with him, Scott is running headlong into an unfavorable environment and a savvy campaigner in Nelson, who's repeatedly found a way to win in a state where most Democrats have fallen short.
