The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
●Senate Forecast: Daily Kos Elections is pleased to roll out our new weekly Senate Forecast, which David Jarman will be publishing every Monday from now through the election. Each week, Jarman looks at the average of all the public polling in each Senate race to asses which seats are likeliest to flip—and, above all, whether Democrats can retake the chamber.
Using a model created by data scientist Drew Linzer, Daily Kos Elections calculates a trendline that best fits the available polls for each contest and computes an average that reflects where things stand today. You can find all of these poll trendlines and averages on our site by drilling down to each race, though note that some don't have any polls at all.